Ballot Measures and Voter Turnout
In 2008, ballot initiatives could impact races up and down the ballot, including the Presidential campaign, by working to increase the profile of an issue and helping to frame a particular issue, but one thing they won't do is dramatically increase Election Day turnout.
Unlike in off-year elections where ballot initiatives, if used strategically, can help boost turnout among "drop off voters" (voters who typically vote in a Presidential year but not in off-year congressional and state elections), the Presidential campaigns will be driving turnout for ballot initiatives, not the other way around.
An initiative can help to shape the debate in a state and create a contrast between candidates that helps inform a voter's choice of a particular candidate, but their value in mobilizing turnout in a Presidential year is limited. Statistical analysis indicates that what will determine and drive turnout is past voter participation, along with the amount of resources, time and energy spent in a particular state--and most importantly, a campaign's ability to register, target and turn out new voters.
In short, people who are not likely to vote in this Presidential election, and who not motivated to vote in this election, will not be mobilized by a ballot initiative to do so. The claim that a ballot initiative will boost turnout among people not likely to vote is a myth.
Click below for resources:
Top Five 2006 Ballot Measure Myths & Research Results of Voter Turnout and Ballot Measures. Click Here.
Turning On and Turning Out: Assessing the Individual-Level Effects of Ballot Measures. Click Here.
