Expert: Colorado ‘Personhood’ Unlikely to Make Ballot
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RH Reality Check: The latest attempt to place a state constitutional amendment before Colorado voters to effectively ban abortion may not qualify for the November ballot. At a press conference Friday, Personhood Colorado leaders announced they would submit 79,817 petition signatures to state election officials. That's just 3,770 signatures more than 76,047 required — a slim five percent margin which a local campaign expert says is unlikely to hold.
Tyler Chafee, senior associate with RBI Strategies and Research, said, "There is very little chance that voters will be seeing this measure on the 2010 ballot." State initiatives generally try to collect 30 percent more signatures than required to cover the expected names that are disqualified because they are not registered voters. Chafee predicts the latest attempt by anti-choice activists will fall about 13,000 signatures short. He based his estimate on the same signature approval rate, a relatively high 79 percent ratio, on the group's 2008 petitions. In that campaign, more than 131,000 names were submitted to the Colorado Secretary of State, almost double the required number and 50,000 more than this go-around. Both campaigns used a similar volunteer petition circulation effort that focused on conservative church congregations over a six month period.
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